The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) announced that Nigeria is on course to increase crude oil production to two million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, and to three million bpd by 2030, as part of its long-term upstream growth strategy.
The projection was revealed by Udy Ntia, Executive Vice President for Upstream at NNPC Ltd., during the 2025 Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC), one of the world’s largest energy industry gatherings, hosted by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).
Speaking at the session titled “Beyond the Barrel: The Future of Upstream Strategy,” Ntia said Nigeria’s upstream growth plan is anchored on technology, efficiency, and decarbonization, emphasizing collaboration and co-investment over competition.
“It’s not just about producing more oil — it’s about producing better oil: more efficient, cleaner, and more profitable,” Ntia stated.
“Nigeria’s upstream sector is evolving through collaboration, smarter capital deployment, and innovation.”
He identified three major forces shaping the global and Nigerian upstream landscape — energy transition pressures, industry fragmentation, and technological transformation — noting that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital technologies will drive new efficiency gains and unlock value from mature oil fields.
“Technology is an enabler to extract more efficiently, improve decision-making, and guide smarter investments — not just higher spending,” he explained.
Addressing energy transition goals, Ntia stressed NNPC’s commitment to reducing emissions while maintaining responsible oil production, highlighting that Africa contributes less than 3% of global emissions.
He cited key initiatives such as gas monetization, flare reduction, and major pipeline projects — including the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline linking to demand centers across West and North Africa — as examples of the company’s focus on sustainability and regional energy integration.
Ntia also outlined a new financing approach centered on co-investment models, aimed at ensuring project bankability and faster decision-making in a rapidly evolving market.
“Co-investment is the new financing round,” he said. “We are stepping in alongside partners to ensure projects move forward efficiently.”
He underscored that National Oil Companies (NOCs) and International Oil Companies (IOCs) must adopt partnership-driven growth rather than competition.
“IOCs are not rivals — they are partners. Our shared goal is profitability, sustainability, and growth. The focus should be on expanding the size of the pie so that everyone benefits,” he concluded.
Ntia reaffirmed that Nigeria’s upstream strategy is built on a balanced approach to energy security, profitability, and climate responsibility, ensuring that the nation’s vast energy resources remain relevant and competitive in the global energy transition era.
